Predictions for ESEA 25 Week 9 & AFC 12 Week 4


Ascent vs. Gnomercy

Both of these teams have looked sure to reach the playoffs since day one, and now, at the close of the regular season, nothing has changed in that regard.

These rankings have been a bit unsure about Ascent ever since they lost Paddie and brought Ma3la in to replace him. They’ve been closer in score to Gnomercy than they have been to Froyotech ever since that change. Now, that score gap is a mere nine points.

This means the projection machine isn’t prepared to back one team significantly over the other. It thinks this match could be very close, and it could go either way. It’s Ascent that has the slight edge, though.

In terms of scouts, demos, and medics, it favours Ascent on all counts. When comparing the soldier duos of both teams, however, it has more confidence in Aim and Marmaduke than it does in Ma3la and Rando at this time.

Projection: Ascent 5.0 – 4.7 Gnomercy

Lunatik eSports vs. Ascent

The machine suspects Ascent will have no such issues when it comes up against Lunatik eSports for their final match of the regular season.

Lunatik certainly haven’t had an easy time this season, struggling to leave their mark on the other Invite teams. Last week probably marked their last realistic chance to claim a victory in anger when they were scheduled to take on Meat Market, but Lunatik ended up forfeiting anyway.

The machine is giving Lunatik just a sliver of a chance against Ascent. It’s very much expecting to see a 5-0 here.

Projection: Lunatik eSports 0.1 – 5.0 Ascent

Froyotech vs. Faint Gaming

This is one of the matches with serious playoffs implications. The point of contention is whether or not Velocity can do enough in this closing week to steal away Faint’s fourth-place spot in the standings, and by extension their ticket to the playoffs. A good showing from Faint here will serve to make things more difficult for Velocity and help to realise Faint’s pre-season target of reaching the playoffs.

These rankings see Froyotech as the best team in the world, and it thinks they’ll be a very tough nut to crack for Faint Gaming. It thinks the most likely result here is either 5-0 or 5-1. Velocity exceeded what was expected of them when they faced Froyotech recently, so perhaps Faint can do the same.

Projection: Froyotech 5.0 – 0.5 Faint Gaming

Meat Market vs. Velocity eSports

Velocity need to show some authority in this match if they’re going to stand a realistic chance of progressing to the playoffs. There’s certainly no guarantee that’ll happen, because the last time Meat Market faced either Velocity or Faint Gaming, the match ended in a pretty hefty loss for Faint. Given that Meat Market have recently been beaten pretty soundly by Ascent and Gnomercy, there’s no reason to believe they’re suddenly on a whole other level to the fourth- and fifth-placed teams.

The rankings still consider Velocity to be a good distance ahead of Meat Market, but that doesn’t mean victory is guaranteed. The machine expects Velocity to win this match, but looking at what Meat Market have achieved in the past, it expects them to be able to put up a real fight. They’ve already proven they can beat Faint Gaming, so there’s no reason why the same outcome here wouldn’t be possible. That would be bad news for Velocity’s playoffs aspirations.

Projection: Meat Market 3.1 – 5.0 Velocity eSports

Faint Gaming vs. Meat Market

Last time these teams met, it ended in a 5-1 win for Meat Market. Despite this, the rankings are still strongly favouring Faint Gaming in this repeat of the same match-up.

One unique aspect that affected the match in which these teams last met was the instability surrounding Faint’s roster. That match marked Faint’s first official outing with EvilMrMuffinz, and they had Luxor temporarily filling the medic slot. This time around, the same problems shouldn’t arise.

The machine expects Meat Market to close their season out with a loss, perhaps a slightly bigger one than they’re expected to suffer against Velocity eSports. If Faint can pull off such a strong result here, that should put to bed any chance Velocity have left of reaching the playoffs. If all these projections turn out to be true, I believe it would result in Faint Gaming getting the fourth playoffs spot.

Projection: Faint Gaming 5.0 – 2.1 Meat Market


Supa Strikas vs. This Team

These teams have had reasonably similar stories so far this season. They’ve both been obliterated by the dominant TEAM FORTRESS 2 alliance, and they’ve both recently taken on Cookie Monster, against whom Supa Strikas looked stronger.

However, it is in fact This Team who are more highly ranked. This is because their roster features a number of well-recognised solid players, namely Aloy, Aqua, Ry4n, Killer, Cynic, and Jopper. Supa Strikas’ roster is comparatively more enigmatic, with many players at their disposal unknown to this system until the season began. Going from results alone, however, suggests that Supa Strikas might be the better package all around.

For now, though, the rankings haven’t seen enough of Supa Strikas to make such a call. Here, it’s sticking with the more known quantities on This Team.

Projection: Supa Strikas 1.0 – 4.0 This Team

Cookie Monster vs. Muscle Revolution Reborn

It looks from what we’ve seen so far like Muscle Revolution Reborn might be the weakest team in Division 1 this season. So far, they’ve been beaten quite convincingly by This Team and TEAM FORTRESS 2. Cookie Monster, meanwhile, have so far managed a tie against Supa Strikas on one map and a victory over This Team on another.

Cookie Monster’s feats are more impressive, then, but there’s certainly no guarantee that they’ll win this. Cookie Monster don’t yet have much data for this system to go on, whereas many elements of Muscle Revolution have been around for a little while. They’re much more of a known quantity. This is why the projection machine is reluctant to lean significantly in one direction over the other. It narrowly favours Cookie Monster in this match.

Projection: Cookie Monster 2.7 – 2.3 Muscle Revolution Reborn


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