Predictions for ESEA 25 Week 8 & AFC 12 Week 3


Froyotech vs. Lunatik eSports

The recently-improved projection machine has done a pretty good job of anticipating the ESEA-I results of late. If this crystal ball-ery is going to continue this week, Froyotech will open up this second-to-last week of the regular season with an easy win over Lunatik eSports.

Now that Fable eSports have apparently met their demise, Lunatik are looking pretty lonely in their status in the Invite hierarchy. Meat Market are probably the team closest to them at this point, but even they managed to beat Lunatik 4-1 when they met a while back. That particular confrontation will be happening again this week a little later on.

The machine is giving Lunatik zero chance in this engagement, which is a rare thing for it to do since I adjusted it a couple of weeks ago. Of all the teams Froyotech could face, Lunatik are probably the one least likely to end their winning streak.

Projection: Froyotech 5.0 – 0.0 Lunatik eSports

Meat Market vs. Gnomercy

Gnomercy’s number-3 status has looked rock solid for weeks now, especially with their recent wins over Faint Gaming and Velocity eSports, while they’ve yet to beat either of the big two. They have one last chance to change the latter coming in Week 9 when they’ll be pitted against Ascent, which may be their best chance of leaving a mark on one of the two titans.

Against Meat Market, Gnomercy shouldn’t have a great deal of difficulty. Having said that, BroKing’s team have pulled off some solid performances this season. The highlight of their season so far might be when they beat Faint Gaming 5-1 a few weeks ago in a victory that’s made them look like they might be approaching the same level as Velocity eSports. The TF2Metrics rankings paint a similar picture.

Gnomercy’s strength, though, is significant, and neither Velocity nor Faint have managed to conquer them. If they can’t do it, then the chances are that Meat Market can’t as well. Never say never, though.

Projection: Meat Market 0.3 – 5.0 Gnomercy

Velocity eSports vs. Froyotech

Froyo’s second match of the week will pit them against Velocity eSports. A good result for the latter here would be very handy indeed if they’re going to beat Faint Gaming to the fourth playoffs spot.

We already know that Velocity will be playing without their usual roamer, Marmaloo, for the second match in a row. The projection here takes this into account, with Garbuglio filling the empty spot.

This ranking system has seen Marmaloo as one of the standouts on Velocity eSports since the early season, but his absence hasn’t caused the team’s expected performance to be dulled. As good as Marmaloo is, Garbuglio is ranked above him as one of the world’s top soldiers, and his achievements in the last match showed why this is.

However, not even Garbuglio is enough for Velocity to be outright favoured in this match, and the machine is still expecting Velocity to only win one round if any.

Projection: Velocity eSports 0.5 – 5.0 Froyotech

Lunatik eSports vs. Meat Market

Excluding automatic forfeits against dead teams, this will be Lunatik eSports’ penultimate match of the season. With their final one being against Ascent, this bout against Meat Market is sure to be the best chance they have remaining of winning a match on the battlefield instead of through a forfeit.

The machine thinks Lunatik could be able to improve upon the 1-4 result they attained when these teams last met midway through the season. However, it’s still expecting the same ultimate outcome of a Meat Market victory. Even if that is the case, Lunatik could well be able to deliver a spirited defence and provide us with a long and potentially quite close match. Certainly the machine thinks this’ll be the closest match of the week in ESEA.

Projection: Lunatik eSports 2.2 – 5.0 Meat Market


This Team vs. Cookie Monster

Last week, Cookie Monster were beaten overall by Supa Strikas. In turn, Supa Strikas were beaten handily in Week 1 by last season’s second-place team, TEAM FORTRESS 2. That team gave the exact same treatment to This Team in Week 2 in a match that ended with the exact same scoreline as the Supa Strikas one. By deduction, then, you might expect This Team to beat Cookie Monster in much the same way as Supa Strikas did.

That’s more-or-less the impression that the projection machine has going into this match. It helps that the players on This Team are more familiar to it than those on Cookie Monster, which factors into its impression that This Team should have the advantage when these teams come to blows. Perhaps this time Cookie Monster won’t be able to walk away with a draw on one of the maps, but such a result isn’t entirely out of the question even if this projection turns out to be accurate.

Projection: This Team 3.8 – 1.2 Cookie Monster

Muscle Revolution Reborn vs. TEAM FORTRESS 2

After a Bye week and a match for which no logs were available, Muscle Revolution Reborn are still very much an unknown quantity to this system. Its current assessment of them still comes from what it already knew beforehand about the players at the team’s disposal, and it’s yet to see them in action.

However, that probably doesn’t matter much considering how dominant their opponents have been so far this season. TEAM FORTRESS 2 have some exciting new weapons at their disposal this season, including Xiao veteran Tommy and Right Wing Death Squad’s hsr on medic.

Even if Muscle Revolution are significantly better than they were last season, they’d have a real struggle on their hands to topple this bunch. Based on what it saw last season, the projection machine doesn’t think they stand a chance. Given that they lost to This Team in Week 1 by a reasonable margin, this may turn out to be true.

Projection: Muscle Revolution Reborn 0.0 – 5.0 TEAM FORTRESS 2


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