The Premiership division of ETF2L Season 27 has been ultra competitive so far. Close and unpredictable matches have been a staple of the regular season, with teams like Arctic Foxes, Lowpander, LEGO, and Unexpected all looking capable of beating eachother.

The group stage came to a somewhat controversial end when Arctic Foxes forfeited to LEGO in their closing match. This guaranteed LEGO’s entry to the playoffs to the detriment of Unexpected, who would have progressed in their place had LEGO been beaten. It’s important to remember, however, that Unexpected benefited from a forfeit themselves in Week 1 courtesy of Lowpander – a team that’s looked sure to reach playoffs all season long.

SE7EN have had another great season, but they’ve shown signs of weakness a couple of times already this season. They trailed Nunya for a short while at the beginning of their match on Reckoner, and they were just barely outmatched by Unexpected on Granary late in the season in one of Prem’s most extraordinary results in recent times.

The four teams contesting Playoffs this season are as follows:

  • SE7ENThalash ● Starkie ● Kaptain ● Drackk ● Kaidus ● Raymon
  • Lowpander: Mr. Epic ● Funs ● Uubers ● Muuki ● Hildreth ● Crayon
  • Arctic Foxes: Thaigrr ● Maros ● Feeling ● dd5f ● Adamracek ● Raptor
  • LEGO: Yppy ● Pot8o ● Josh ● Dmoule ● Domo ● Dr. Phil

Round 1

SE7EN vs. LEGO

SE7EN have certainly been the most impressive team of the season, but the quality of the field means they shouldn’t have any easy outings for the remainder of the season. LEGO had a strong start to the season, making light work of Nunya and nerdRage before getting the upper hand over Antic – a team that before the season looked like playoffs contenders. They’ve not outright won a match in anger since then, though.

If Arctic Foxes hadn’t forfeited their scheduled match against LEGO, and then went on to beat them as many would have imagined, then SE7EN could well have found themselves facing Unexpected in this match instead. That certainly would have been an interesting twist of fate. It would be a crazy day indeed to see SE7EN get knocked down into the lower bracket.

The truth is that SE7EN would have to be the favourites going into virtually any match, be it against Unexpected or LEGO. The projection machine’s impression of this engagement is that LEGO are likely to struggle. Given the numbers it’s spat out, SE7EN ought to win in two maps while only dropping one or maybe two rounds.

SE7EN 4.4 – 0.6 LEGO

Lowpander vs. Arctic Foxes

These teams have made up a pretty distinct second tier in this season’s Prem division. They’ve both dropped a grand total of five maps – two of them in forfeits and two against SE7EN. The fifth they dropped to eachother, which says it all really.

Unlike Arctic Foxes, Lowpander managed to force a golden cap on both maps that they lost to SE7EN, which is where their small points advantage in the standings comes from. Given that Arctic Foxes seemed to struggle quite badly when they took on SE7EN early in the season, you could make a solid case for Lowpander being the favourites going into this match.

The projection machine thinks otherwise. It believes aF’s roster is of a higher calibre overall, with no real weak links. While it’s a big fan on Mr. Epic, Funs, and Uubers, it wonders if Muuki, Hildreth, and Crayon are quite a match for their Arctic Foxes counterparts. It’s here that the pendulum starts leaning in aF’s direction. This is why it expects to see Arctic Foxes win about twice as many rounds as Lowpander in this match.

Lowpander 1.7 – 3.3 Arctic Foxes


Upper Bracket Final

SE7EN vs. Arctic Foxes

These teams have an interesting history. Before Season 27 started, Arctic Foxes took a fantastic win over SE7EN in the first EU Faceit Weekly – a tournament they went on to win. SE7EN were quick to return the favour in Week 1 of the ETF2L season by dismantling them 4-1,6-1. That was the last time these teams met.

The rankings see SE7EN’s soldiers and medic as their biggest advantages. Things are a bit closer with the scouts, as Thaigrr and Maros are both actually ranked a little higher than Thalash, whose disciplined playstyle often leaves him underappreciated by these metrics. Kaidus, meanwhile, who was unknown to this system a couple of months ago, has yet to quite catch up to Adamracek.

The machine thinks Arctic Foxes could pack enough punch to win a good number of rounds in this match, perhaps enough even to push SE7EN into a third map. SE7EN are still backed to take the overall win, though. This would send Arctic Foxes to the lower bracket.

SE7EN 3.1 – 1.9 Arctic Foxes


Lower Bracket Round 1

LEGO vs. Lowpander

The group stage match between these teams saw a solid, but certainly not dominant, victory for Lowpander.

The rankings see a clear advantage for Lowpander in its two scouts, Mr. Epic and Funs, over LEGO’s Yppy and Pot8o. This system’s confidence in Josh has gone down a fair bit over the last few months as well, meaning it sees Uubers as the superior pocket soldier by a big margin.

Things aren’t so plain with the rest of the players. Dmoule is considered LEGO’s star player at the moment, and he’s ranked a short way ahead of Muuki. Hildreth and Domo are similarly close, but this time the Lowpander player is favoured. Dr. Phil is the LEGO player with the biggest points advatage over his counterpart – over 90 clear of Crayon at the time of writing.

Overall, the balance is firmly in Lowpander’s favour. The machine is expecting what would basically be a repeat of these teams’ group stage match. Such a result would see LEGO eliminated from contention.

LEGO 1.5 – 3.5 Lowpander


Lower Bracket Final

Arctic Foxes vs. Lowpander

This is where the rematches begin. Because all of these predictions come from the same data pool, the expected outcome of this match is, naturally, the exact same as the the machine came up with earlier.

Its impression is, once again, that Arctic Foxes would be able to muster the strength to defeat Lowpander again and progress to the Grand Final for the second season in a row. Even in defeat, though, Lowpander would have bettered their result from last season which saw them come fourth overall.

Arctic Foxes 3.3 – 1.7 Lowpander


Grand Final

SE7EN vs. Arctic Foxes

If everything predicted so far comes to be, then we’d have the same Grand Final we had last season – SE7EN versus Arctic Foxes.

This is another repeat of a match expected to have already happened in the playoffs, and again the projection machine’s impression is the same as it was the first time around. Arctic Foxes might be able to give SE7EN a tough challenge, and maybe prevent SE7EN winning in straight maps, but they’re expected to lose in the end.

Last season’s Grand Final featured two maps, on which aF lost 2-1 and 5-2. The machine’s prediction, if it came true, would mark a small improvement in competitiveness.

SE7EN 3.1 – 1.9 Arctic Foxes

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s