Playoff Predictions: Ozfortress 19

The regular season of Ozfortress Season 19 has now concluded, and the top four teams have been decided. These four will progress to the playoffs, which will probably start imminently. Ozfortress uses a page playoffs structure, which will give us a grand total of four matches. After that, we’ll have our winners.

The four playoff teams have had nice stable rosters all season long. The most recent changes have centred on Right Wing Death Squad, as they’ve been seeing a pretty rapid medic rotation in the closing stages of the regular season. They started with kELIEr, then moved on to Left, and shortly after switched to Doge, formerly of Jamane. Jasmine Tea started the season with Buddah on medic, but he was replaced mid-season by Johno.

  • Jasmine TeaMadness ● Elmo ● Geoh ● Rocky ● Paulsen ● Johno
  • No Safeword: Teejay ● Hertz ● YWL ● SoLe ● Enrith ● Lock
  • Right Wing Death Squad: Ben ● Fwishy ● hsr ● kpc ● Moop ● Doge
  • Damage Inc.: Spj ● Sam ● Aneurysm ● Feyn ● Crud ● Halfwrong

Upper Page Round 1

Jasmine Tea vs. No Safeword

This match will feature twelve exemplary players. The Jasmine Tea roster, of course, is half made up of players who attended i58 and Rewind, backed up by some of the best Australia has to offer in Johno and Rocky. Add Elmo, a classic but not LAN-going Jasmine patriot, to the mix and you have a roster that’s clearly good enough to win.

No Safeword, meanwhile, features a platter of players who come from far and wide across the lifetime of competitive TF2. YWL has become one of the princes of Ozfortress in recent times, contesting several grand finals with teams like ELO_Assassins. He’s accompanied on No Safeword by SoLe – one of the oldest of the old hands imaginable. I don’t know where No Safeword found this guy but I expect they had to dig through all kinds of rock strata to get to him. Keep your eye on the killfeed in this early 2008 frag video and you might spot him. Close to ten years later, he’s hunting the Ozfortress title.

The final week of the regular season gave us, for the first time all season, a showdown between these two titans of Ozfortress Prem. The playoffs will open with a rematch. It was Jasmine Tea who took victory in that opening bout, taking Gullywash 5-3 and Badlands 3-0. It was a statement of intent by Jasmine Tea, who will be seeking to repeat or improve upon that result.

The projection machine had narrowly favoured No Safeword when they first met last week. Having seen the stats from that match, it’s now leaning in the other direction. It remains adamant that No Safeword have what it takes to beat Jasmine Tea, but it has slightly dialled back its belief in them. The points gap between the teams in the rankings is tiny at the time of writing, and the score gap the machine is expecting to see is about as small as you can get. It thinks No Safeword under-performed in Week 7, and that this match will be ultra close if both teams play at their best.

Jasmine Tea 2.6 – 2.4 No Safeword

Lower Page Round 1

Right Wing Death Squad vs. Damage Inc.

RWDS’s win over Nature Walk was quite unexpected by the projection machine. Even though RWDS brought in Doge and Nature Walk played without Dubious, it was expecting the latter to edge it. In truth, RWDS looked very much on top of things.

This system rates Damage Inc. as being about the same as Nature Walk in potency, which may or may not be a worrying sign for them. As of now, RWDS are still ranked lower than both of those teams, but the points gap has halved over the course of last week.

RWDS have the momentum, then, but Damage Inc. have looked very good all season long. These teams took one map each when they played eachother in the regular season, but it was Damage Inc. who won more rounds in total. The projection machine expects to see a similar result when these teams meet again in the playoffs.

Right Wing Death Squad 2.1 – 2.9 Damage Inc.


No Safeword vs. Damage Inc.

If the above results come true, Jasmine Tea would head straight to the Grand Final and RWDS would be eliminated. Meanwhile, No Safeword would have to take on Damage Inc. for the right to take on Jasmine Tea a third time.

When these two teams met in the regular season, No Safeword took a dominant win and conceded just a single round to Damage Inc. across both maps. The machine is expecting things to be a bit closer this time, but it has often over-estimated the middle teams this season in their bouts against the big two. Nevertheless, it expects the Semi-Final to be the most one-sided match of the playoffs.

No Safeword 4.0 – 1.0 Damage Inc.

Grand Final

Jasmine Tea vs. No Safeword

Even though the route to this point is debatable, I don’t think anyone is expecting to see anyone other than these two teams in the Grand Final. They’ve been in a class of their own all season and a third and final showdown between them would bring Ozfortress Season 19 to a fitting end.

Naturally, the projection machine can only offer the same impression as it gave in the first Upper Page round – a super narrow Jasmine Tea victory. In truth, more data will be available when the final actually comes. We’ll have found out whether or not No Safeword looked any better against Jasmine Tea at the beginning of the playoffs. Likewise, data from the semi-final could well tip the balance.

It’s about the least sure the projection machine has ever been, but it’s backing Jasmine Tea to win Ozfortress Season 19 – but possibly only by a whisker.

Jasmine Tea 2.6 – 2.4 No Safeword


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