Once again, these projections were generated based on data from before the closing matches of this week were completed. This time, it’s the final two ETF2L matches that haven’t happened yet – the first due to take place this evening and the other overflowing to next week on Monday. The data from the latter therefore won’t make it into the Update post that’s coming later.


ESEA

Whale eSports vs. Froyotech

Froyotech’s first outing of the week shouldn’t trouble them too much. Coming off the back of their pretty convincing defeat at the hands of EVL, a nice gentle week opener might be just what they need.

Projection: Whale eSports 0.0 – 5.0 Froyotech

Gnomercy vs. Meat Market

Gnomercy’s 100% record is expected to continue in their next fixture against Meat Market. Gnomercy’s roster has Meat Market’s thoroughly out-classed in terms of Invite experience, and the projection machine doesn’t see anything other than an easy victory for them.

Projection: Gnomercy 5.0 – 0.2 Meat Market

Faint Gaming vs. Legalize Ranch

Faint Gaming have had an explosive start to their season, beating EVL Gaming and Hibbleton. It certainly feels like they’ve been punching above their weight so far, and their next challenge will be Legalize Ranch. Looking at what Faint Gaming have achieved so far, Legalize Ranch could well be considered to be within their reach.

The machine is expecting a close match here, but it thinks Legalize Ranch should be able to overpower their opponents in the end, but perhaps not by much.

Projection: Faint Gaming 3.0 – 5.0 Legalize Ranch

EVL Gaming vs. Hibbleton

Having beaten Froyotech last week, EVL have now really cemented their claim as North America’s (and possibly the world’s) best team. With that in mind, they shouldn’t lose to any other team in ESEA-I, although they nevertheless managed it in Week 1 against Faint Gaming.

Hibbleton might be pretty close to Faint Gaming in raw potency. This is a team of big names, but many aren’t playing what we’d perceive as their signature class. They certainly shouldn’t be able to win this, but the machine thinks they have a good chance of winning a round.

Projection: EVL Gaming 5.0 – 0.7 Hibbleton

Legalize Ranch vs. Fable eSports

Based on what’s transpired so far, it looks like Fable eSports might be Invite’s weakest team at the moment. Legalize Ranch, meanwhile, are looking rock solid in their middling status. The machine hasn’t seen much to instill any real confidence in Fable eSports. It knows Legalize Ranch much better, and it thinks they shouldn’t have any trouble 5-0ing their opponents in this match.

Projection: Legalize Ranch 5.0 – 0.0 Fable eSports

Froyotech vs. Gnomercy

This should be a quality match. Froyotech may have endured the bitter taste of defeat last week, but they’re still Froyotech. In Gnomercy, they’ll have a tough challenge on their hands. Gnomercy features a wealth of talent that has recently played or trialled with the top two teams, including Slemnish, Marmaduke, Dingo, and Cookiejake.

As solid as they are, the machine is favouring Froyotech here. They’re an extremely strong team that last week lost to one that, on the day, was even stronger. The machine expects Gnomercy to be perfectly capable of winning rounds, but the match should go to Froyo.

Projection: Froyotech 5.0 – 2.1 Gnomercy

Meat Market vs. EVL Gaming

EVL have proved their potency once and for all now, and Meat Market don’t seem to have the ingredients to match them. EVL won’t be expecting anything other than an easy win here, and the machine doubts that Meat Market will be able to win even a single round.

Projection: Meat Market 0.1 – 5.0 EVL Gaming

Fable eSports vs. Whale eSports

The machine’s conclusion here really comes not from seeing significant strength on the side of Whale eSports, but from not seeing much at all on the side of Fable eSports. Based on what it knows, it can’t suggest anything other than a solid Whale eSports victory. However, these are both rather lowly teams and Fable eSports could very well give their opponents a harder time here than the machine expects.

Projection: Fable eSports 0.0 – 5.0 Whale eSports


Ozfortress

Just like last time, Jasmine Tea have already gone ahead with their match for the upcoming week and have taken victory against Xenophobiaphobia, who (based on what I’ve seen in the logs) didn’t take the match too seriously and offered little resistance.

Right Wing Death Squad vs. Damage Inc.

Both of these teams have had some good results this season, but of the two Damage Inc. has generally looked slightly ahead. It’s them who look good to come third this season with their current tally of 12 points in the group stage. RWDS are sitting on 8, in joint-fourth place at the moment with Nature Walk.

The projection machine agrees with these metrics that Damage Inc. are the more likely to take victory here, but RWDS’s strength is serious and real and they could feasibly pull off an upset.

Projection: Right Wing Death Squad 1.6 – 3.4 Damage Inc.

Nature Walk vs. No Safeword

Nature Walk have, for the talent they have at their disposal, perhaps looked slightly shaky so far this season. The projection machine has generally over-estimated them until last week, when they beat a Xenophobiaphobia roster that the machine saw as their equal.

This, however, is likely to be a test too far for them – No Safeword have looked bullet-proof all season long. It’s still not clear whether or not they really are better than Jasmine Tea – we’ll have to wait until the final week of the group stage for that. It does seem clear, though, that they should have Nature Walk beat by a pretty significant margin.

Projection: Nature Walk 1.3 – 3.7 No Safeword

Jamane vs. Dog the Boys

Now this one should be interesting. Dog the Boys and Jamane have been the punching bags of the other six teams so far this season, and now we’ll find out once and for all which of the two is superior to the other. Jamane have shown some positive signs so far in their campaign, perhaps more so than Dog the Boys. What’s more, they have some established talent available as well, not least in Doge.  The projection machine thinks that they therefore ought to win this while only dropping perhaps a round per map.

Projection: Jamane 4.2 – 0.8 Dog the Boys


ETF2L

Lowpander vs. nerdRage

The projection machine is expecting three of Week 5’s four ETF2L matches to be very much alike in closeness. This is the first of those three, where Lowpander will take on nerdRage. Lowpander have shown serious potency all season, perhaps mostly so when they easily dispatched Antic (then known as BazookaSports).

nerdRage, too, gave AMS’s team a challenge, but overall they’ve not looked to be quite on the same level as Lowpander. The machine expects to see the Frenchies generally struggle here, and Lowpander may well be able to outscore their opponents by a ratio of 3 to 1.

Projection: Lowpander 3.7 – 1.3 nerdRage

SE7EN vs. Antic

The machine is expecting to see almost the exact same ratio here as well. Antic have had a bit of a strange season so far, failing to take wins where they surely were capable of taking them. These difficulties evoke memories of Publiclir – another AMS-centred iteration that struggled to defeat opponents that it had the talent to beat.

SE7EN haven’t had as much trouble this season, to say the least. Strangely, it might have been Nunya that knocked them off balance the most so far this season. If Antic’s struggles continue, SE7EN will be well poised to capitalise. Even if Antic do turn up with renewed vigor, they should still struggle to steal some points away.

Projection: SE7EN 3.6 – 1.4 Antic

LEGO vs. Unexpected

LEGO suffered their first real defeat at the hands of SE7EN last week, but this next fixture should give them a chance to regain their balance after that thrashing. Although Unexpected so far haven’t made life too difficult for the upper echelons of Prem, they have looked unmistakably like a proper Prem team, especially when they defeated Nunya handily recently.

LEGO’s mix of traditional LEGO DNA and new blood has proven to be extremely effective thus far, and Domo especially has impressed. This fixture will be a chance for Adysky, now an old guard of Prem, to show him who’s boss.

Just like the two matches above, the projection machine expects this to be a reasonably one-sided but not uninteresting match-up.

Projection: LEGO 3.7 – 1.3 Unexpected

Arctic Foxes vs. The Absolute Nuts

Arctic Foxes, despite seeing a very heavy turnover of scouts over their short history, are still looking like one of Prem’s most promising teams. The Absolute Nuts have shown great maturity in their time as well, but they probably stand little chance in this engagement.

This shouldn’t be an especially tough test for aF, and the machine is bucking its trend here by suggesting a much more uneven balance of power. It thinks The Absolute Nuts will have done will if they can win just a single round in the whole thing.

Projection: Arctic Foxes 4.6 – 0.4 The Absolute Nuts

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