Further adjustments to the projection machine ● ESEA Week 1 ● ETF2L Week 3 ● Ozfortress Week 3 (and a bit of Week 4) ● AsiaFortress Lower Bracket Final ● Overview of Rankings movements
Further adjustments to the projection machine
I’ve been fiddling with the balance of the projection machine all week, and many of the projections you’ll see for the week’s matches will have come from different configurations. I’m pretty settled on where it is now, in a configuration that was used for the latter portion of the week.
It’s generally more decisive about match outcomes, but this is especially so with those between two highly-ranked teams. It now expects matches of this nature to be noticeably less close than it used to.
The accuracy indicator I added last week, which gives an approximation of how well the projections matched reality, has been adjusted in a couple of ways. The logic of the accuracy calculation is better now, and the indicator now measures inaccuracy rather than accuracy, simply because I feel this way is more meaningful and perhaps less self-congratulatory.
It’s a reasonably simple sliding scale. If a match is projected to end 5-0 but in truth it’s 0-5 to the other team, that would be 100% inaccuracy. Taken into account in this percentage is how closely each team’s projected round count matches reality, as well as how well the projected ratio of round wins between the teams does the same.
ESEA Week 1
There’s been so much TF2 this week that I can scarcely bring myself to comment on each match individually. In North Amercia, many expectations were defied this week.
Nowhere is this trend more apparent than in the Faint Gaming vs EVL match, which epitomises the theme. EVL under-performed this week, and Faint Gaming seemed to really over-perform. Sandblast’s team could become the story of the season if they can pull off more giant-killing performances like this.
ETF2L Week 3
Ozfortress Week 3 (and a bit of Week 4)
AsiaFortress Lower Bracket Final
In the Upper Bracket Final, bb Tommy were just barely beaten by Burger Apocalypse in a very close and hard-fought match. The loser of the Lower Bracket Final would be knocked out of contention, and it looked like we were in for another close one after the first map. On Gullywash, however, bb Tommy found another gear and P00tis had no answer. This state of affairs didn’t change come Snakewater, and in the end P00tis found themselves thoroughly outclassed.
bb Tommy will therefore face Burger Apocalypse again in the Grand Final. As for when we’ll eventually see that, nobody yet knows.
Overview of Rankings movements
Over the course of this week, Nursey has progressed from sixth to third in the world and she’s very close to challenging Raymon for second. If her upswing lasts much longer, she could upset the consistent 1-2 placements for B4nny and Raymon that have been in place ever since I started this blog.
SE7EN have closed in on EVL by 23 points this week, slicing their deficit down by a third. At this rate, we’re only a week away from seeing the gap between North America’s best and Europe’s best return to ESA Rewind levels. Froyo are only three points behind EVL at the moment, too. EVL may have had a shaky start to their season, but for now their number-1 status is just about enduring.
Jasmine Tea are much closer to No Safeword than they were last week, but a lot of this is because their Week 4 match is already completed. No Safeword haven’t had theirs yet, so these teams are kind of out of sync with eachother at the moment. NS’s match will be against Dog the Boys, and that should give them plenty of opportunity to rake in a big score boost once it’s done.
By acquiring Thaigrr, Arctic Foxes are back in a representative position in the Rankings again, and they continue to be perceived as Europe’s second-best team. Unexpected have made a big leap forwards as well after they made light work of The Absolute Nuts (formerly Nunya) last week.
Many of the new ESEA teams started out near the bottom of the table, and after a week of matches they’re starting to filter out into more representative positions. Leading the pack is Faint Gaming, Sandblast’s team, who took a pair of wins against difficult opponents in Week 1 – Hibbleton and, even more impressively, EVL. This means they’re currently ranked second-best among the big contingent of new teams, behind only Gnomercy in that category.
Hibbleton and Meat Market have also had positive starts, leaving Whale eSports and Fable eSports languishing at the bottom of the table for now.
P00tis have fallen down the order a fair bit (having started the week in 14th) after they had a difficult showing against bb Tommy, and two of their men (Fwishy and hsr) suffered a heavy defeat with RWDS against Jasmine Tea in the only Week 4 match to have happened so far.