The Rankings update will come once all of this past week’s matches are finished, which will be after tonight’s ESEA games. Given that the new week is already upon us, I’ve gone ahead and taken the projections early. These are therefore generated based on the data available before the ESEA matches on the night of Sunday the 11th had taken place.


ESEA

Legalize Ranch vs. Whale eSports

The opening week of ESEA matches has left the machine with close to zero confidence in some teams, simply because they failed to impress it in the first week alone. It’s perfectly ordinary, of course, for a fine team to fail to win a match in the opening week, so what the machine here perceives as hopelessness certainly isn’t necessarily such.

Whale eSports strikes me as one of those teams that it isn’t yet giving enough credit. The machine thinks they stand only a fool’s chance against Legalize Ranch – a team with a wealth of Invite experience on their side. While it would be brave to bet against them, I don’t personally think it would be shocking to see Sighguy’s new team steal some rounds.

Projection: Legalize Ranch 5.0 – 0.1 Whale eSports

Faint Gaming vs. Gnomercy

Faint Gaming pulled off one of the most extraordinary upsets last week when they beat EVL Gaming (what this system continues to believe is perhaps the most capable team in the world) to the tune of 5-3.

The team were well gilded in that match, too, but the projection machine is far from convinced they’ll be able to pull off a similar result against what is probably Invite’s third-best team – Gnomercy. While Faint Gaming remain relatively unknown to this ranking system, the machine has only enough confidence in them yet to give them an outside chance of winning a round in this match. Based on the numbers currently available, it thinks their victory over EVL was one almighty fluke. We’ll see about that.

Projection: Faint Gaming 0.1 – 5.0 Gnomercy

Froyotech vs. Hibbleton

Hibbleton has pedigree that this ranking system recognised even before it saw this team in action. Even at this early stage, it has enough confidence in them to say that they’re at least as good as Europe’s Nunya (aka The Absolute Nuts), and realistically their rank will only improve with time as long as they can deliver reasonable results.

Froyotech, however, are another matter altogether. Just like with the previous two matches, the projection machine is expecting a one-sided affair here.

Projection: Froyotech 5.0 – 0.2 Hibbleton

Fable eSports vs. EVL Gaming

Five members of Fable eSports had never before had an on-record match before last week, and the sixth (Okiewaka) only had a single entry himself. It will take time for the squad to build up a level of trust within this system. For now, the rankings don’t have enough confidence to consider them anything other than the least potent team in the world’s top leagues.

EVL, meanwhile, it considers (at the time of writing) to be the best team in the world. All the other teams in the world’s top leagues therefore find themselves in an EVL-Fable sandwich. It should come as no surprise, then, that EVL are expected to win this easily. But it thought the same thing about their match against Faint Gaming.

Projection: Fable eSports 0.0 – 5.0 EVL Gaming

Hibbleton vs. Meat Market

Meat Market feature three players with established records within the TF2Metrics system, and they are BroKing, CheesyMacgyver, and Mae. The rest remain quite unknown for now. This state of affairs will change as the season goes on, but for now they don’t offer enough to convince the machine that they can beat Hibbleton. The latter features a collection of players who, by and large, are nicely decorated in the rankings. This is why they are greatly preferred in this match.

Projection: Hibbleton 5.0 – 0.2 Meat Market

Gnomercy vs. Fable eSports

Again, this projection revolves mostly around the lack of familiarity with the Fable eSports roster. Coupled with the vast amount of talent present on the Gnomercy rosters (which in this ranking system puts them in the same ballpark as Arctic Foxes and Jasmine Tea), this means Fable eSports aren’t expected to offer much of a challenge to their opponents here.

Projection: Gnomercy 5.0 – 0.0 Fable eSports

EVL Gaming vs. Froyotech

If all the previous predictions were depressingly ill-informed and one-sided, this is where things change. Supposedly we’ll be getting a continuation of the great EVL-Froyo rivalry this week with their first bout since their off-season roster changes.

There’s almost nothing between them in the rankings at this point, and given a few extra days the expected outcome could flip. Not even the projection machine is able to pick one over the other with any confidence. As usual, it expects a close match between the two giants. Last season, this anticipation of closeness wasn’t always rewarded. We’ll see if it’s right this time.

Projection: EVL Gaming 5.0 – 4.8 Froyotech

Whale eSports vs. Faint Gaming

Even though neither of these teams have much data in this system, this is at least something they have in common. The rankings here recognise the likes of bo4r, Sighguy, and Sandblast as real talents, and its early impression of Faint Gaming is positive. It’s reasonably confident that Sandblast’s team should have an edge, but it also expects Whale eSports to be capable of winning at least one round.

Projection: Whale eSports 1.2 – 5.0 Faint Gaming


Ozfortress

The first Ozfortress match of the week has actually already happened. On Sunday, Jasmine Tea made light work of Right Wing Death Squad and won without dropping a round. The full data from this match will be shown in the upcoming Update post.

Xenophobiaphobia vs. Nature Walk

This one has the potential to be a very exciting match. Xenophobiaphobia have been doing alright recently, giving Damage Inc. a serious challenge and making mincemeat of Dog the Boys. Last week, Nature Walk forfeited against Jasmine Tea. It was against Dog the Boys that the team got their only win of the season so far. They certainly didn’t look as convincing against Damage Inc. as Xeno did.

The machine perceives a higher level of recognisable talent on Nature Walk’s side. As for Xenophobiaphobia, it’s still not entirely convinced by some of the team members such as Kure and Yauch. This is why it thinks Nature Walk should have the raw skill to win about twice as many rounds as their opponents. Based on what we’ve actually seen so far in the season, though, Xeno might be able to do better than this.

Projection: Xenophobiaphobia 1.5 – 3.5 Nature Walk

Damage Inc. vs. Jamane

Jamane showed some signs of strength in their match against Right Wing Death Squad last week, in which Gstar was gilded, and they’re starting to separate themselves a little more from fellow bottom-dwellers Dog the Boys. Damage Inc. have been having a very good season, though, and they’ve proven to be far more potent so far this season.

The projection machine expects that Jamane will struggle to achieve much in this match, giving them a slight chance of maybe securing a round. It thinks Damage Inc are too good for anything more to come of this.

Projection: Damage Inc. 4.9 – 0.1 Jamane

No Safeword vs. Dog the Boys

No Safeword are definitely among Australia’s top two teams, and it’s safe to say that same doesn’t apply to Dog the Boys. If the latter are going to take a map win this season, it’s probably not going to happen here. All things being equal, this match isn’t expected to be a classic.

Projection: No Safeword 5.0 – 0.0 Dog the Boys


ETF2L

Arctic Foxes vs. BazookaSports

This is the first of two matches in Europe this week that the projection machine believes could be very close. There’s a perception that BazookaSports have failed to deliver their full potential so far this season, and this ranking system agrees. They were soundly beaten by Lowpander in Week 2 when the projection machine favoured AMS’s team.

Nevertheless, BazookaSports are still ranked highly among the European teams. They’re currently considered third-best in the region, behind Arctic Foxes. This is the team they’re going up against this week, and for the first time the projection machine is expecting to see either a BazookaSports loss or a tie. AMS’s team have defied expectations all season long, though, so it’s perhaps not out of the question they’ll keep that trend going by beating Arctic Foxes handily.

Projection: Arctic Foxes 2.9 – 2.1 BazookaSports

LEGO vs. SE7EN

These are the last two undefeated teams of the season. Neither has dropped a map so far and that is going to have to change this week. The rankings make a clear statement as to which team may get the short end of the stick in this engagement, and that’s LEGO.

SE7EN are rising quickly in the Rankings as Kaidus gradually settles in and builds up his reputation. LEGO have done a superb job with their revised roster, but it looks like SE7EN should be beyond even their reach. The machine is expecting SE7EN to prove capable enough to win about three times as many rounds as their opponents in this match.

Projection: LEGO 1.2 – 3.8 SE7EN

nerdRage vs. Unexpected

This system believed that Unexpected would have difficulty against Nunya last week, and that ended up being quite inaccurate, especially on Reckoner. Unexpected showed serious strength there, making light work of Nunya on a map where SE7EN dropped two rounds to the same team a week earlier.

Since then, Nunya have found themselves ranked far behind Unexpected again, and the latter is now much closer in score to nerdRage than they are to Nunya. This is why the machine is expecting the Frenchies to have a real fight on their hands in this match. It thinks they’ll outperform Unexpected, but a tie could be on the cards here.

Projection: nerdRage 2.9 – 2.1 Unexpected

Lowpander vs. Nunya

Nunya’s defeat to Unexpected last week means it seems very likely that they’ll be ending this season at the bottom of the table. Adysky’s was probably one of the few teams genuinely within their reach (although I suppose we shouldn’t forget what Nunya managed against SE7EN a couple of weeks ago).

Lowpander, coming off the back of a tie against Arctic Foxes and a great victory over BazookaSports, probably aren’t the most likely team to fall to Nunya. Nevertheless, the machine leaves plenty of space for round wins to go to Nunya – perhaps one per map. Even so, Lowpander should be able to take six points away from this match with relative ease.

Projection: Lowpander 4.1 – 0.9 Nunya

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