Projection Machine & Records adjustments ● ETF2L Week 2 ● Ozfortress Week 2 ● NA team rosters unfrozen ● Puoskari joins BazookaSports
Projection Machine & Records adjustments
I’ve added some extra information to the match graphics pertaining to the score projections. There’s now an extra bit that shows what the real score balance was, and underneath this the accuracy of the projection is assessed by comparing the predicted and actual score balances. What determines the accuracy rating is a mix of how closely each team’s predicted score matches what they actually got, and how well the predicted score ratio between the two teams matches reality.
Starting this upcoming week, the projection machine will be modified slightly to expect matches to be slightly less close. I had to rebuild this gizmo from the ground up when I adjusted it a few weeks ago and a good balance has to be re-found.
Also, with the new ESEA season coming soon, I’ve added a function to the machine that makes it produce predictions especially geared towards the ESEA ruleset where appropriate. Rather than a 30-minute/5-round-difference system, ESEA uses a 60-minute/first-to-5 system. This means that the winning team is almost guaranteed to have five rounds at the end. For all ESEA matches, the projection machine will take this into account from now on.
ETF2L Week 2
The first Prem match of the week promised to teach us a lot about this season’s hierarchy. This would be Lowpander’s first outing of the season, after having forfeited to Unexpected in Week 1, and BazookaSports came into this one having dropped a map to a nerdRage roster that wasn’t supposed to be able to beat them.
In the end, this match will have left many scratching their heads. Lowpander reached playoffs last season, and since then they’re sure to have only improved, especially with the addition of Funs. BazookaSports, meanwhile, have been perceived as a potential SE7EN rival – a team that should pretty easily make playoffs.
The momentum they built up when they breezed through the pre-season playoffs was hampered when they dropped a map to nerdRage, and here they seemed to run out of puff altogether. Lowpander appeared to be very much on top of things. With this victory, they’ve really staked their claim as a playoffs-worthy team. That’s a club that contains at least five teams now, and there’s only room for four. Based on what we’ve seen so far, it actually looks like BazookaSports might be the ones most likely to miss out.
Lowpander have soared in the Rankings after their win, and they’re very close in score to LEGO, but they’re still ranked behind BazookaSports for now. This system is giving AMS’s team the benefit of the doubt for now, but it’ll only last for so long.
nerdRage vs. LEGO might have been the highlight of the week. These teams produced a close match that ultimately resulted in a LEGO victory. nerdRage certainly didn’t make it easy for their opponents, though, and they often matched or bettered LEGO in some team fights. Neither team has moved much in the Rankings after this match, as it went more-or-less as expected.
Arctic Foxes needed a good showing against Unexpected, and that’s ultimately what they gave. They appeared to have little trouble against Adysky’s team, and eleven of the twelve total rounds went to them. Some of the Unexpected players stood out, though, not least Sorex and Babs, the latter somehow managing to out-heal Raptor.
The fourth match of the week had every right to be totally one-sided – SE7EN vs Nunya. Although SE7EN only won two rounds on Badlands, it was at least clear that they had total control. On Reckoner, however, they couldn’t prevent Nunya from taking a couple of rounds of their own. This harks back to last season’s match between these two teams, where the first round actually went to Nunya rather than SE7EN.
Ultimately it was SE7EN who took all six points, but Nunya showed that they’re capable of conjuring strength, especially on Reckoner. This bodes well for their match next week, where they’ll take on Unexpected on the same map. Nunya are actally ranked slightly above Unexpected now that they’ve brought in Iatgink. If they’re going to take a map win anywhere this season, it’ll be there.
Kaidus was finally gilded for the first time in this match, so he’s started his ascent up the Rankings. It’s given him a big score boost, bringing SE7EN’s score up with it. This means the team is starting to return to a representative position – currently third-best in the world and top Europeans once again.
Ozfortress Week 2
Week 2 began with a thoroughly one-sided affair when Jasmine Tea made short work of Jamane. Based on what I’ve seen in the logs, neither team took this one especially seriously, but I don’t think this affected the result particularly. All JT members got gilded and they’ve climbed a little further in the Rankings because of it. They’re very much inter-mingling with the playoffs-level European teams.
Last week, the Projection Machine underestimated how good Damage Inc. would be, but this time they didn’t beat their opponents as significantly as expected. Going from the logs, it seems like this could have gone either way. Damage Inc. won both maps, but Xenophobiaphobia apparently contested them very well. Five players were gilded in this match and four of them were on the losing team. Xeno’s average KA:D exceeded that of Damage Inc. as well. The signs say that Xeno were capable of winning this, but that Damage Inc. prevented them from doing so is commendable in itself.
Xeno were beaten last week by Right Wing Death Squad, and this led to this system percieving them as a team that could be capable of giving No Safeword a hard time. They won a round on each map, but nothing more. No Safeword were gilded across the board and took Process by score difference, even though they were playing with a couple of mercs. This dominant victory means No Safeword’s status in these Rankings as Australia’s best team over Jasmine Tea continues to persist.
The week ended pretty much as it began, with Nature Walk taking what was probably a nice easy win over Dog the Boys. The latter managed to get their first rounds of the season on the board on Process, though, and the damage of Heebs prevented Snow from getting gilded. Other than that, though, Nature Walk seem to have been dominant.
NA team rosters unfrozen
The new ESEA season is coming soon, so I’ve replaced the old rosters of the NA teams. The players currently listed on each team are based on the teams’ ESEA pages and logs from recent scrims. There are almost certainly some inaccuracies here from where I’ve misinterpreted a merc or a trial as a proper confirmed team member, and on top of that I’m sure there will be rapid roster changes at this point in the season.
As far as I can tell, Faint Gaming haven’t settled on a demo and roamer yet, so they’re currently on four men. Some of the other teams, meanwhile, feature players who aren’t listed in the Rankings, so they too lack a full roster of players in the list.
I’ll go into more detail with these teams in an ESEA Season Preview post soon, but I will say straight away that this system believes that both Froyotech and EVL Gaming have, on paper, become even stronger since last season. Shade’s come back to Froyotech to replace Nursey, B4nny’s back on scout to replace Freestate, and Garbuglio’s come in to act as pocket.
But they are not, this system believes, the best team in the world. EVL Gaming will be welcoming Nursey and Paddie this season, both of them world champions at ESA Rewind. Half of the world’s top six players are on EVL now. There’s barely a hair’s width between the two great teams of North America, but these Rankings suspect that EVL Gaming have just become the best team in all the world.
Joining these two are Gnomercy, who could also be very strong. They’ll be ready to punish Froyo and EVL should they get too complacent when they’re not playing against eachother.
Puoskari joins BazookaSports
Today, Puoskari left Arctic Foxes and joined fellow Finn AMS at BazookaSports. Apparently this is because Thaigrr couldn’t attend the prospective i61 LAN, which is tremendous shame. At the time of writing, it’s not clear what the response from Arctic Foxes will be – whether Schocky temporarily fills the void (as he apparently can’t attend LAN either), or if Cykaz comes back, or something else entirely. This means they’re currently on five men in the Rankings, and so are down quite far out of position.