Ozfortress rosters updated ● Amendments to EU rosters ● New Froyotech roster revealed ● ETF2L Pre-season playoffs conclude ● EU Faceit Weekly #1 ● Projection Machine 2.0
Ozfortress rosters updated
The rosters for the new Ozfortress teams, as explored in further detail here, have now been added to the Rankings list and all the old teams are gone. Among them is the new incarnation of Jasmine Tea. The new Ozfortress season begins in earnest tomorrow with Jasmine Tea vs. Dog the Boys.
Amendments to EU rosters
I’ve also updated some of the EU rosters. The big changes are Starkie’s return to SE7EN, Puoskari’s move to Arctic Foxes (replacing Schocky), and Medico’s exit from nerdRage. This hasn’t caused much movement for the former two, but nerdRage have dropped down a long way from where they used to be. All of this will be discussed further in an ETF2L season preview post coming tomorrow.
New Froyotech roster revealed
Froyotech’s roster for the upcoming season appears to be finalised. Shade’s return has been confirmed, and it’s also been revealed that Garbuglio is joining Froyo as their new pocket soldier. Their roster in the Rankings won’t be updated until I unfreeze them closer to the start of the new ESEA season, when all the teams will be updated at once.
I can tell you that with this roster, Froyo’s score in the Rankings would be 801. If EVL’s Nursey/Paddie rumours come to fruition, theirs would be 793. For reference, Arctic Foxes and SE7EN are currently sitting on 704 and 682 respectively. My, oh my.
ETF2L Pre-season playoffs conclude
Any pre-season playoffs match that results in a team being promoted to Prem goes on record. Since there were four vacant Prem spots, four matches from this series have now gone on record.
AMS’s Team (now called BazookaSports) made light work of Loli Squad in their final pre-season playoffs match. They went soaring straight into Prem. Although they found themselves soundly beaten, Loli Squad would have a second chance later against Nunya.
On the same day, LEGO defeated Unexpected to earn their own Prem qualification. Their victory was less dominant, and it culminated in a golden cap on Gullywash, which they won. Unexpected therefore got knocked down to the lower bracket where they would face the French ★★★½ squad, who had already at this stage far exceeded what was expected of them my playoffs simulation.
Today, Nunya faced Loli Squad in one of the final two matches of the series. There was only room for one of them in Prem, and it looked like Loli Squad were going to take it without much trouble when Process ended 5-0 in their favour. Nunya came back on Snakewater, however, and secured their victory on Product despite some splendid Iatgink sniping. With that, they’ve re-qualified for Prem and Loli Squad will have to settle for High.
In the other match of the day, Unexpected took on ★★★½. Before this match, the latter were so unknown to this Ranking system that it could only assume that the more familiar Unexpected roster would destroy them. In truth, the Frenchies gave their opponents a very difficult run, forcing golden caps on both maps, but in the end both of them were won by Unexpected. Adysky’s team is therefore the eighth Prem team, and ★★★½ will be heading to High. Their run was a brilliant one, though.
The end result of all this is that BazookaSports, LEGO, Nunya, and Unexpected are the four teams who qualify for Prem. Although the route to this conclusion deviated a fair bit from my original simulation, these are the exact same teams that this system predicted would progress back when the playoffs were first announced.
EU Faceit Weekly #1
TFTV’s first Faceit Weekly happened yesterday evening and, despite some seeding issues, it was an absolute treat to watch. Based on the quality of the teams involved, I’ve decided to put the final and semi-finals on record. The seeding imbalance meant that one of those semis was significantly less interesting than the other, but it’s only fair to include both, I suppose.
By far the more interesting semi was between Arctic Foxes and SE7EN. aF fielded a couple of mercs here – the very capable duo of Adysky and Funs. SE7EN, meanwhile, featured their full new roster, complete with Kaidus and Starkie. Arctic Foxes’ shock victory was a historic event – the first time SE7EN/Crowns have been beaten by another European team in a proper match since August last year, or June last year if you don’t include showmatches.
You could say that SE7EN’s loss was foreseen by this Ranking system a few days ago when Alle’s exit left the team slightly lower than aF in the order. When these teams meet again in the opening week of ETF2L, SE7EN will be very keen indeed to prove it was actually just a fluke.
The other semi was all together less exciting. Loli Squad, still a Prem contender at this point, took on EzRoll for a place in the final. Victory went to Loli Squad, and three of their members got their first on-record gildings.
For Arctic Foxes, this grand final must have felt more like a victory lap. Loli Squad got 5-0,5-0’d for the second time all week, and the tournament win went to aF. It’s the perfect springboard from which they will launch their ETF2L campaign this coming week – and now they know they’re capable of winning the whole thing.
Projection Machine 2.0
You may have noticed that the projection machine’s impression of the showdown between Arctic Foxes and SE7EN is vastly different from the view shown by the Rankings. In the latter, Arctic Foxes had (and continue to have) a slim lead over SE7EN in score, yet the projection machine still favoured SE7EN to a strong extent.
This is because the projection machine is based on simpler logic than the Rankings are. The reason for this is the comparative nature of the Rankings. Gilding numbers on their own aren’t enough to generate a score – they have to be compared to everyone else in the list for that to happen. To make things easier to compute, this isn’t the case with the projection machine. The formula its judgements are based on doesn’t require the players involved to be examined in the context of everyone else who has a ranking. This made the machine’s impressions easy to automate.
Naturally, this has led to small discrepancies between what the Rankings think about certain teams in relation to eachother, and what the projection machine does. Usually these were small, though. In the aF vs. SE7EN match, however, the discrepancy was huge. For a unified TF2 Ranking system to have two such differing opinions at once is, basically, not good enough.
I’ve therefore changed the logic behind the projection machine’s predictions. It’s now directly based on the team’s scores within the Rankings, which means that the machine’s score predictions will always correlate exactly with the average scores of the players on the involved teams. The Rankings list and the projection machine now see exactly eye-to-eye.
The only downside is that it’s no longer totally automated, which practically speaking only means that each match graphic takes a couple of seconds longer for me to sort out. It’s certainly no biggie. On the plus side, there will be no more “not enough data” instances.
This new machine gave its first two projections in today’s closing ETF2L pre-season playoffs matches which were won by Nunya and Unexpected.