Playoff Predictions: AsiaFortress

The playoffs for Asiafortress Division 1 are now beginning. Between the main season and playoffs, a transfer window opened up allowing teams to exchange various players, the fruits of which aren’t yet crystal clear. Burger Apocalypse have had quite a revolution, picking up some BALI 6 refugees and Ry4n formerly of AMC. I’ve only seen one or two transfers each for the other three teams, and I imagine there’s no guarantee we’ll see their new acquisitions in action in the playoffs.

To help alleviate this uncertainty as much as possible, I’ve taken into account the match histories of the four teams as well as their recent transfers, and given the machine the six players that I suspect are likely to appear in the playoff matches. The fact that BBQ have already apparently shown their hand in the one playoff match that’s already happened helps a great deal in this endeavour. I’ve listed these below:

  • HBZBLK ● 10 ● Hwain ● Daylight ● Starky ● Kalpushy
  • bb TommyTeejay ● Kcot ● 26 ● Cloverella ● Jigglesaur ● B4it
  • Burger Apocalypse: Geoh ● Aishou ● Emgee ● Floaty ● Ry4n ● Aqua
  • P00tisAloy ● Fwishy ● hsr ● Moosepi ● Shinka ● iMauriceiNoob

The first match of the playoffs happened today, featuring Burger Apocalypse and P00tis iz Kil. Their listed rosters above are indeed influenced by the players they fielded in this match.

The layout of the playoffs can be seen on the organisation’s Challonge page here.

Round 1

Burger Apocalypse vs. P00tis iz Kil

Let’s start with the one match that already happened – BBQ vs P00tis. Before adding the data from the real match into the system, I gave the projection machine the two rosters the teams fielded to see what it expected to happen. Each team fielded the exact rosters listed in the section above. It expected a narrow BBQ victory, spitting out the numbers 2.7-2.3 in their favour. The actual results across two maps were 6-2 and 4-2, so it underestimated BBQ but at least got the winner right.

Projection: Burger Apocalypse 2.7 – 2.3 P00tis iz Kil

Therefore, in both real life and the projection, Burger Apocalypse advance to the Upper Bracket.

HBZB vs. bb Tommy

HBZB are easily one of the most out-of-place teams in the Rankings – far too low. Part of the reason for this is that they are one of the teams that seldom fielded the same six players twice in the regular season, and some of their players therefore haven’t had enough opportunities to build a good record in the system yet. The roster of bb Tommy is comparatively much more stable. They picked up Teejay before the playoffs and I’ve very presumptively interpreted him as a replacement for Himari. Based on the rosters listed above, the projection machine believes that bb Tommy are significantly favoured in this engagement.

Projection: HBZB 1.4 – 3.6 bb Tommy

Upper Bracket Final

bb Tommy vs. Burger Apocalypse

Having both progressed to the Upper Bracket, it is expected that Burger Apocalypse will face bb Tommy for a guaranteed spot in the Grand Final. The machine has given the edge to bb Tommy despite BBQ’s overhauled roster.

Projection: bb Tommy 2.9 – 2.1 Burger Apocalypse

Lower Bracket Round 1

P00tis iz Kil vs. HBZB

The two losers from round 1 would now contest for the right to stay in contention. The projection machine believes that P00tis would have a slight edge in this engagement, and if this came true it would knock the Koreans out of the tournament.

Projection: P00tis iz Kil 2.7 – 2.3 HBZB

Lower Bracket Final

P00tis iz Kil vs. Burger Apocalypse

Beating HBZB would give mean P00tis head to the Lower Bracket Final in a rematch of their first round match against Burger Apocalypse. This time the projection machine is taking into account the changes made to each players’ record due to the real match between these two teams in Round 1. The new data serves only to widen the gap between them, and it believes BBQ would reaffirm their superiority.

Projection: P00tis iz Kil 1.9 – 3.1 Burger Apocalypse

Grand Final

Burger Apocalypse vs. bb Tommy

This is really just a rematch of the Upper Bracket Final, and with no actual new data to go on, the projection machine can only assume the same result would befall Burger Apocalypse, thereby leaving bb Tommy as the champions of AsiaFortress Season 11.

Projection: Burger Apocalypse 2.1 – 2.9 bb Tommy

It’s clear from the Rankings that this system doesn’t do the best job of representing AsiaFortress – it undervalues HBZB, it has a habit of overvaluing P00tis, it’s not very good at judging teams with unstable rosters, etc. I personally don’t expect its interpretation of playoffs to line up especially well with reality, but I suppose anything could happen. Let’s see if its prophecy can hold on beyond just one match, at least.


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