Rankings Update (30-Mar-2017)

TF2Metrics improvements ● AMS’ Team roster update ● ETF2L High finals ● The week in OzFortress ● The week in ESEA-I ● The Freestate Phenomenon ● Mario Party 4 vs. Six Apes projection ● Upcoming content

Today I’ve added a visual aid to the Rankings that lists next to every player what class they played in their last on-record match. It’s a fully automated system that I built into the base spreadsheet so sometimes it falls victim to off-classing (Stark confirmed #3 medic in the world). Otherwise, it works wonders for quickly comparing the placements of different players who all fill the same role.

Funs is no longer on the roster of AMS’ team, and now the eponymous Finn is listed on scout alongside Scrab. Thaigrr/Walker, meanwhile, is now listed as one of the team’s soldiers.

It therefore looks like this team is now in the market for a pocket soldier, of which Europe has many of great quality. Perhaps ChampGG’s short-lived all-British soldier duo of Silentes and Thaigrr will be revived. If Lowpander don’t survive the off-season, could Uubers come over? T0m could also be a possibility. It’s also possible AMS would head back to pocket to make way for a different incoming scout. Maybe there’s a chance Sorex could be tempted over. There’s all kinds of permutations here that would all ultimately lead to a very enviable lineup.

Noot Clan have reserved themselves a spot in Prem having won the ETF2L High Grand Final against Loli Squad. The majority of their players were unknown to the Rankings beforehand, so both teams find themselves at the bottom of the team rankings for now. Of the twelve players who took part, Credu and Cricket were the only two to get gilded.

Since the ETF2L season is now finished (except for the Open final, which has no influence on the Rankings), the listed rosters of the European teams in the Rankings will now largely be frozen until Season 27 is close (AMS’ will be an exception). This is partly so that the teams from the other regions can still be compared to the actual rosters that took part in Prem this season, and partly so we don’t get bogged down in transfers that may well end up being meaningless.

This was the last week of the OzFortress Premiership group stage. Progressing to the Playoffs are No Safeword (ranked #1 in the region here), Xenophobiaphobia (#3), Mad Men (#2), and Damage Inc. (#6). Victory or Riot, which this system sees as the fourth-best team in Australia, actually ended up sixth in points.

We saw a match between World’s Blankiest Blank and Salt Free Gaming this week to decide who would end the season at the bottom of the standings. Ultimately it was the former who came out on top, winning 4-3 4-1, but this system still thinks Salt Free are in front, an assertion that has now obviously been debunked. The reason for this is that although the match win went to Blankiest Blank, each team saw two players get gilded, and that’s all that matters to these rankings. It basically sees the result as a draw. Those players were Dauq, Razor, dvp, and Blank.

Mad Men beat Nature Walk convincingly, with four gildings where Nature Walk saw none. This played a big role in Nature Walk slipping back three places in the Rankings since the last update.

Likewise, No Safeword dealt with Victory or Riot quite nicely. The latter brought Yui in on scout and he managed to get gilded against Elmo, and Riotbz did the same against Laan, NS’s roamer. The rest of NS’s players all succeeded in getting gilded. Yewl and Enrith especially are skyrocketing in the Rankings. Enrith is right among the holy demoman trinity of Bdonski, Habib, and Alle. Yewl is tied with his teammate, and only 17 points shy of Kaptain. How much these placements align with reality is very much open for debate, of course, but Aussies aren’t to be underestimated. Around i58 time, Australia’s top two were Geoh and Dave in 9th and 16th, and Jasmine Tea led the LAN’s group stage. Back then, Yewl was 65th and Enrith 80th.

Damage Inc. secured their spot in the playoffs by taking a map off of Xenophobiaphobia in their match. Crud was gilded yet again (against Paulsen, of all people), meaning his hit-rate is better than those of Alle and Habib (although ESA Rewind meant that these two achieved their hit-rates in spite of some world-class opposition).

The 5-2 prediction courtesy of my faithful gizmo in the last update came exactly to fruition in the Jamal E-Sports vs. EVL match earlier this week. EVL also beat Mario Party 4 yesterday, and Froyotech beat Six Apes, too. In both of those matches, four members of the victorious team got gilded while none on the losing team did.

Freestate was one of Froyo’s ungilded members in their match – his KA:D wasn’t quite high enough. This scout is turning into something of an enigma in these rankings. He pulled off something of a miracle over the course of i58 by coming out of the event with a pretty much intact hit-rate of 63%. Since then, his hit-rate has halved.

The numbers that matter to these rankings are DPM and KA:D. Exceed your counterpart on the other team in both these areas and you get gilded. Freestate doesn’t have more trouble with one of these criteria than the other, and often it’s only one he’s beaten in. Against Yomps, though, he’s often been beaten in both of late. Perhaps his lower numbers are merely suggestive that his playstyle is more docile than it used to be, or indeed the numbers are pointing to something that doesn’t even really exist. There’s a lot more to TF2 than big numbers, after all.

Six Apes are one of the teams that are underappreciated in these rankings (although the best example of that would probably be Asia’s HBZB). Mario Party 4 are ranked above them despite them never having bested Six Apes in a straight fight (although they did once beat Jamal E-Sports, which is something Six Apes haven’t managed). Six Apes have already beaten MP4 in the race to the playoffs, but they’re playing eachother again tonight. The projection machine is indeed expecting a Mario Party win:

Mario Party 4 3.4 : 1.6 Six Apes

Assuming the winning team reaches five rounds, this translates best to 5-2. A bold prediction, indeed. Could an MP4 victory bring vindication to these rankings’ controversial choice?

Seeing as we’re now in the gap between playoffs for both AsiaFortress and OzFortress (and will soon be there for ESEA), I aim to present to you over the next few days the projection machine’s impression of how the playoffs in each region will go down. There shouldn’t be anything too ridiculous in its ESEA and OzFortress expectations, but given how mixed up its perception of AsiaFortress is, it may produce some comedy there.

Until then!


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