The Projection Machine & ETF2L S26 Finals

As a side-project alongside the Rankings, I’ve made another little gizmo that makes predictions on the overall scorelines of matches. It looks at each team of six you give it and produces a rough scoring ratio for the two teams that’s derived from their overall appearances-per-gilding ratio (from the past 300 matches on record). It’s only a very general guess and the only thing it offers is a general scoring trend across all maps in whatever matchup you give it. The maths behind it aren’t especially technical or scientific, and it’s nowhere near clever enough to account for things like what maps are being played.

Nevertheless, ETF2L’s Season 26 Grand Finals are coming up tomorrow, and I’ve shown the projection machine the rosters of the teams involved. The exact numbers it spat out look like this:

Arctic Foxes 1.6 : 3.4 SE7EN

We can extrapolate from this that an actual score of 2-4 per map would fit quite nicely, as would 1-2 or perhaps 2-5, or 1-3 if we end up visiting Viaduct. This happens to line up very well with what occurred when these teams last met in the Upper Bracket final, where on Gullywash the score was 2-4, and on Reckoner 2-5.

However, just because its outlook for this match seems sensible enough doesn’t mean this system is always reliable. This machine tends to get more excited about new teams than the Rankings do, which are usually more conservative about players and teams with little experience. At the beginning of this ETF2L season, I remember it getting very excited indeed about Nunya, simply because they did well in the Pre-season Playoffs and Hems looked good at DHW. For a good couple of weeks it was convinced Nunya was one of the better teams in Prem, and it predicted they would beat Arctic Foxes comfortably. That prediction ultimately didn’t materialise at all, and Nunya failed to win a single round that particular week.

Since it’s reliant only on the average gilding ratios of a team’s players (which is also true for the Rankings), this can be used for any combination of twelve players, as long as those players are familiar to it. When working with fantasy teams, especially intercontinental ones, you can rightly say its conclusions have no grounding in reality. It’s basically one step short of plucking numbers out of thin air. Still fun, though.

Also, once the ETF2L Grand Final is done, I’ll update the ranking tables. There’s been a lot of matches and some noticeable movement in the standings over the course of this week.


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